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The Inflation Tsunami
On December 26, 2004 a magnitude 9.3 earthquake shook the subduction zone along the India and Burma plates in the Indian Ocean, sending multiple walls of water–some as high as a hundred feet–racing toward Sumatra, Indonesia at a rate of nearly 600 miles per hour. The tsunami, which struck land, took the lives of more than 225,000 people and caused still-inestimable economic damage to the region. Survivors interviewed following the disaster almost unanimously relayed the same grim tale: minutes before the tsunami hit the animals were spooked and flighty and the beach water receded dramatically. Ignorantly, many people treated the receding waters as a spectacle and looked at the situation as an opportunity to venture out and collect stranded fish and shells. They were to learn too late the awesome gravity of the situation.
And yet, unbeknownst to many, an even more devastating tsunami might well be building. And like many in Indonesia the warning signs are now becoming evident, but do we understand what we are seeing, or are we treating it as a boon; are we walking out to collect fish and shells?
Economic Tectonics
Deep beneath the surface of the US economy there is a seismic fault where the Federal Reserve meets the fractional reserve banking system. Unlike sound banking where each dollar loaned is a dollar deposited in the bank in a fixed term maturing account like a CD, this system uses initial capital investments and deposits to pyramid a hundred fold expansion of money in the US economy–essentially printing out of thin air $100,000 for every $1000 of productive money on reserve. The new money is given as loans to individuals and businesses to be paid back with interest at a future date. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) aggressively price fixes interest rates (the cost of immediate access to money) to further embolden citizens to take out these loans.
When a business person, for example, takes out a loan from a bank to build a new facility, s/he signs a contract with the bank to repay the loan with interest after a period of time. As unbelievable as it might sound, the bank from whom s/he burrows the money does not actually have the money to loan. One might ask where the money comes from. With a few keystrokes in the bank computer, the banker types in that the business person now has the money in his or her account. The money, as the banks will reluctantly tell you, is nothing more than the promise of paying it back. The new loan money then is used for architects, engineers, contractors, laborers, suppliers, etc. Once this money is in the hands of this second tier, some money is exchanged further for goods and services and some money is saved or invested in, say, mutual funds, stocks, retirement accounts, etc. This money in the form of currency, savings, and investments makes up what is called M1 and M2. It further becomes a part of the MZM (Money of Zero Maturity)–money immediately available for withdrawal.
The Nature of Inflation
Monetary inflation begins at the precise moment that more money has entered the economy than there are assets in the market. It might be easy to think that if everyone in the US were suddenly one million dollars richer, everyone could buy a million dollars worth of stuff and be better off. As nice as it sounds, this is simply not true. No, if everyone were a million dollars richer, Cars, boats, big screen TVs, etc. would immediately fly off the shelves (so to speak), producers wouldn’t be able to keep up with the increased demand for those products, and prices would skyrocket as demand for precious few resources increased. After a short time prices would reflect the influx of new money and everyone would be exactly where they were before the million dollar pay day–only now the purchasing power of a dollar would be greatly decreased.
Though the sums of the loans are different and the number and distribution of the debtors are unevenly dispersed, banks are, indeed, engaged in precisely this practice. With all of this extra money floating around, however, should we not already see massive inflation? The Fed is quick to point out that the CPI (consumer price index) shows that inflation is rather stable, at about 2% per year. Herein lies the insidious nature of the Federal Reserve system. Although money flows like water and appears to be of unlimited supply, natural resources, goods, and workers are not of unlimited supply. The extra money in the economy promotes expansion and investment in areas that are not necessarily sustainable in terms of assets and supply and demand. Nevertheless, so long as consumer and business spending increase with the influx of money and companies can continue to produce at elevated levels, inflation is held at bay. What happens, however, if spending and production drop off?
The answer is that we get serious problems like those found in the current housing market. Massive and unsustainable investment was pumped into the housing market with unending credit expansion and government loan guarantees on both loan principle and interest. As long as consumers were buying homes, building and loaning could continue. However, eventually something occurred which no Keynesian economist appeared to think possible: housing supply exceeded demand, and the market simply dried up.
The housing bubble, however, was just the side effect of an easy-money-credit-crises-earthquake deep below the surface of the economy. And the economy soon began its tumult: unsustainable businesses produced by years of easy-money investments began closing; unemployment began rising; home owners were going into foreclosure; bankers were stuck with houses that no one wanted; eventually banks failed; bailouts ensued and with it a new influx of debt–money printed out of thin air, and the inflation tsunami was on its way.
The Warning Signs
But what are the warning signs of an inflation tsunami? Ironically, the most visible manifestation might well be sudden and sharp deflation coupled with a sharp increase in the strength of the dollar. In other words, look for the water to recede from shore and the height of the water off the horizon to rise. Why might this be? As consumers pull back on spending and burrowing, retailers also pull back with the fear of holding more product supply than product demand. Wholesalers perceive this pull back and retreat. Manufacturers see the retreat and stop burrowing for expansion projects and cut back on production. Parts suppliers see the cut back and then demand reduced quantities of raw materials–iron, steel, coal, oil, etc. along with other commodities. Finally when even raw materials drop production the waters might well be close to nadir.
“This Week In the Headlines
“Prices Record Largest-ever Fall from Precious Month” -Wall Street Journal
“US Producer Prices Fell Sharply Last Month” -Wall Street Journal
“US Steel Layoffs” -Wall Street Journal
“Giant Mines Scramble to Cut Output” -Wall Street Journal”
As industry pulls back, all the talk turns toward deflation. Some even mention the boon of the decreased prices and head out to collect fish and shells. Indeed, if deflation was slow and steady and money was pinned to a commodity like gold, deflation might well be a boon for the economy. But the deflation on this economic beach is more sinister. The printed money, mal-investment, frozen credit markets, foreign debt, and bailout cash is ballooning, pulling money away from the tangible production/consumption markets. The money is still out there though, and it has to go somewhere.
Suddenly, the Fed finds itself in a precarious conflict of interest; it is logical and appropriate for the Fed to sell securities, take money out of the market–thereby raising interest rates, but with no money to loan, the credit markets further freeze up, businesses fail, unemployment rises, and the chain of chaos continues. So instead, the Fed does not raise but, rather, lowers interest rates and money moves into the banking system. Hilsenroth and Evans of the Wall Street Journal spell this out cearly:
“…but the mere risk [of deflation] puts added pressure on Congress and the incoming Obama administration to quickly advance a large fiscal stimulus plan. It also increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will take steps–such as pushing interest rates lower–to boost sagging consumer and business demand.”
Source: John Hilsenroth and Kelly Evans. Prices Post Rare Fall; A New Test for the Fed. Wall Street Journal. November 20, 2008.
Because the money starts with bankers, those who now qualify for increasingly stringent loan requirements–the rich–will get the first grab at the new money. For them the purchasing power of the dollar will remain essentially unchanged. However, as that money–which does not represent an increase in asset production because of the economic pull back–enters the market, the disparity between the volume of money and hard assets grows. Further, because new production is low, new jobs are not being created as quickly as the money is increasing. Those citizens who are overextended in their personal finances, including the poor and lower middle class and those on fixed incomes, begin liquidating the MZM. And the tsunami grows as it approaches land.
The result is that the dollar will likely crash and flood the consumer market and the inflation will grow as the money volume increasingly exceeds assets. The buying power of the dollar will plummet, and those close to the water–those holding the dollar–will be washed away.
The Size and Scope of the Inflation Tsunami
The big question at this point is how big will this inflation tsunami be? This question depends largely on the liquidation of M1 and M2 money. When inflation is examined in terms of the MZM for 2008 rather than the CPI, we find that the actual inflation rate could be as high as 20%. If liquidation was total, inflation could be this high or higher in terms of the CPI. This would be catastrophic, but a total liquidation might not be realistic. Perhaps 15% might be though. To make matters worse the Fed and the US Treasury might continue to pump money into the economy, creating aftershocks and undermining consumer and business confidence.
Where should you be when the inflation tsunami hits? The answer, as far away from the dollar as possible. My vote is the hard commodities, specifically precious metals–gold, silver, and platinum. As the purchasing power of the dollar plummets, the demand for, let’s say, gold will increase, driving up the price to its current inflation adjusted market value price, which is likely about $2,250 per ounce (some project it lower and some much higher depending on where and when you begin measuring).
Even these investments are not without perils; specifically, world governments have resorted to price fixing for precious metals and even confiscation in exchange for fiat dollars, as happened in the US in the 1930s.
Can the Tsunami Be Stopped?
Simply put, there is no stopping the tsunami once it is started. However, to a limited degree, it can be pushed back. Right now the US Treasury and the Fed are moving earth, sky, and sea to avoid an economic meltdown. If credit markets were to miraculously reinvigorate and consumers and business owners were able to devise only productive businesses with sound supply/demand principles, hire unemployed workers, and do it all before the tsunami hit, they might be able to push off the collapse. If the Fed then burnt billions upon billions of dollars and the congress outlawed the fractional reserve banking system, the power of the tsunami might be somewhat mitigated though not removed. Will this happen? No.
Truly the best solution to this problem is one outlined over 80 years ago, and remarkably it remains virtually unchanged no matter how progressed the ill. Ludwig von Mises accurately predicted the boom bust cycle and has been right all along–reduce government spending, lower or eliminate taxation on individuals and businesses, return to sound money based on gold or silver, end the Fed and fractional reserve banking system, pay off debt, save money, invest with true capital, grow the economy without the fetters of egalitarian price controls, subsidies, taxes, and tariffs, and trade freely. Even if we adopted these policies immediately, there would still be a price to pay, but the sooner we turn around, the sooner we find our way to higher ground.
About the Author
Chris Waner is a writer, artist, and musician in New York City. You can read more of Chris’ articles at The Free Exchange
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